Housing market ‘purgatory’ for existing home sales as activity falls

The housing market is traditionally busiest in spring, but this year’s key buying season proved lackluster. The month-over-month decline largely reflected affordability challenges: Mortgage rates hovered close to 7% throughout April and May, when most June closings would have entered contract.

“Existing home sales have been in purgatory since mortgage rates spiked in 2022,” Lance Lambert, editor-in-chief of ResiClub, told Fortune Intelligence. “Some of that’s because strained affordability in many markets is making it harder for sellers to find a buyer at their asking price—which is also why active inventory is rising. And some of it is because many would-be home sellers, who’d like to sell and buy something else, either can’t afford that next payment or don’t want to part with their lower mortgage rate and payment. No matter how you look at it, this is an unhealthy housing market.”

Sky-high prices

On a nationwide basis, home prices climbed to an all-time high, underpinning the market’s affordability squeeze. The median price for existing homes reached $435,300 in June, up 2% from the same month a year earlier and marking the 24th consecutive month of yearly price gains. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun sounded an optimistic tone about this staggering climb: “The record-high median home price highlights how American homeowners’ wealth continues to grow—a benefit of homeownership. The average homeowner’s wealth has expanded by $140,900 over the past five years.”

Despite weak sales, inventory is slowly rebuilding: 1.53 million homes were listed for sale at the end of June, up nearly 16% from a year ago—the highest level in years—though still 0.6% lower than in May owing to seasonal factors. This puts the market’s unsold inventory at a 4.7-month supply, matching pre-pandemic norms and up from 4.0 months a year prior.

Regional dynamics varied. Sales dropped in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, but edged higher in the West, with year-over-year changes mirroring these splits. Single-family home sales slipped 3%, while sales of condominiums and co-ops were stable compared with May but down 5.3% against June 2024.

One positive for buyers: more supply and slightly longer time on market. Realtor.com reported that active inventory for June rose for the 20th straight month, climbing nearly 29% year over year to 1.08 million homes, and the average home spent 53 days on market, five days longer than a year earlier. However, these gains are offset by persistent undersupply when compared with the pre-pandemic market, and price cuts became more common, with nearly 21% of listings experiencing downward adjustments—the highest June share since 2016.

“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record-high home price,” Yun said, noting that construction continues to lag population growth and is holding back first-time buyers. “If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters would become first-time homeowners and a boost in activity from existing homeowners,” Yun added.

If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, Yun said, he expects home sales to increase across the country owing to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs. For now, though, it’s a familiar story of peak prices and affordability as the main obstacles for would-be homebuyers in the U.S.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.