How a one-on-one matchup would change the NYC mayoral race:

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks down new polling in New York City’s race for mayor. Plus, we examine a rare instance of President Donald Trump’s White House breaking with Israel.

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— Adam Wollner

How a one-on-one matchup would change the NYC mayoral race

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Zohran Mamdani is beatable — but only under very specific conditions that are unlikely to manifest before November’s New York City mayoral election.

That’s the takeaway from a New York Times/Siena poll that finds a broad slice of the city’s electorate still reluctant to line up behind Mamdani, the Democratic nominee and a democratic socialist.

As things now stand, the opposition to Mamdani is divided among three politically enfeebled alternatives. The poll puts Mamdani’s support at 46%, nearly doubling up his closest foe, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is at 24%. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa is third with 15%, with incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dead last at 9%.

But when a theoretical one-on-one contest between Mamdani and Cuomo was tested, the picture suddenly changed, with Mamdani ahead by just 4 points, 48% to 44%. By comparison, Mamdani easily bested Adams in a one-on-one test, 55% to 36%. A Sliwa-Mamdani contest was not polled.

The finding will add more fuel to the push from anti-Mamdani leaders to consolidate behind Cuomo and nudge both Adams and Sliwa out of the race. But neither of them has shown any receptiveness to the idea. And as long as they stay put, the poll makes clear, Mamdani is on a glide path to Gracie Mansion.

But if, somehow, a Cuomo-Mamdani race were to develop, the NYT/Siena poll points to some significant vulnerabilities for Mamdani.

New York City voters rate crime as the most important issue and just 30% say Mamdani is best of all of the candidates to address it. Mamdani’s appeal also tends toward younger and more educated voters. In a one-on-one matchup, Cuomo crushes him among those without four-year college degrees and beats him with Black voters. And support for Mamdani falls precipitously with age:

Of course, Cuomo has his own baggage. A clear majority of voters (59%) have an unfavorable view of him and only 39% say he has good character, according to the survey. By contrast, only 39% view Mamdani unfavorably and 57% say he has good character. To the extent likability matters, Mamdani has a clear advantage over Cuomo.

But another way of looking at this is that Cuomo’s image problem may already be baked in. He’s essentially a universally known political figure who resigned as governor in 2021 amid scandal. Cuomo’s numbers may not improve much the rest of this campaign, but they also may not get any worse.

Mamdani’s image may not be so fixed. He emerged from virtual anonymity to win the Democratic nomination in June and voters still seem to be figuring out what to make of him. In the months since the primary, his platform and past pronouncements have received some scrutiny, which is evident in the lukewarm nature of his support in this poll. A concerted, clever and well-funded anti-Mamdani push could plausibly erode his standing even further.

But, again, that’s only if the current makeup of the race changes.

White House breaks with Israel on Qatar strike

By Doha Madani and Alexander Smith

Israel carried out a strike against Hamas’ senior leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar, marking a significant escalation in its multifront conflict in the region.

There was an immediate political backlash to the attack with the White House issuing rare public criticism of Israel’s action and several other countries, including regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, condemning the strike.

A member of Hamas’ political bureau told Al Jazeera that the group’s senior leadership had survived the attack, raising the question of how well the Israeli attack had been planned.

According to two U.S. officials briefed on the matter and a senior White House official, the Israeli government notified the U.S. that it was about to strike senior Hamas leadership. The officials said the U.S. did not have a lot of advance notice and made clear that America was not directly involved.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a statement during a press briefing this afternoon: “Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States, that is working very hard in bravely taking risks with us to broker peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals.”

She said that President Donald Trump feels “very badly” about the location of the strike, but added that eliminating Hamas was a “worthy goal.” She reaffirmed that Trump views Qatar as a friend to the U.S. and that he wants the war to end.

Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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