Mortgage rates have stayed remarkably consistent for much of 2025. With the calendar set to flip to August this week, there’s little to suggest that trend will change.
On Tuesday, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed that rates for 30-year conforming loans averaged 6.91%, down 1 basis point from a week ago. Rates for 30-year loans through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) were unchanged at 6.6%, while rates for 30-year jumbo loans were down 5 bps to 6.53%.
Rates have shown less volatility since April, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s global tariff policies. The 30-year conforming rate has barely deviated from a narrow band between 6.8% and 7% since mid-April, according to HousingWire’s data.
The market has also had stability due to a consistent policy stance by the Federal Reserve, which has held benchmark rates at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December 2024. That’s not expected to change Wednesday when Fed officials conclude their two-day meeting in Washington, D.C.
“Policymakers are closely monitoring the delayed inflationary impact of new tariffs, which could complicate the path to easing,” said Sam Williamson, senior economist for First American. “While some Fed officials have hinted at a dovish pivot, most favor waiting for clearer data. Markets are eyeing a potential cut in September at the next FOMC meeting, so long as inflation doesn’t trend meaningfully higher over the rest of the summer.”
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool supports these comments. On Tuesday, 97% of interest rate traders predicted no change in the federal funds rate this week. But nearly two-thirds say a cut is coming in September.
“Chairman (Jerome) Powell’s press conference remarks will be closely scrutinized, as investors seek signals on the timing and trajectory for the next rate cut,” Williamson added. “For now, the Fed appears committed to holding the line — balancing inflation risks with the need to support a slowing, but still-strong economy.”
Impacts on housing
Going into 2025, multiple rate cuts were penciled in by Fed officials, but they’ve yet to materialize. That has kept housing market activity relatively subdued, although buyer and seller activity is generally higher than a year ago by many measures.
Many primary and secondary markets across the country are shifting from longtime sellers’ markets to more buyer-friendly ones. This trend is visible through the slowing of home-price appreciation. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May showed 2.3% annualized growth, down from 2.7% in April and the slowest pace of growth in two years.
“It is no longer a seller’s market in many places, but that doesn’t mean it is a buyer’s market or even a balanced market,” Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant noted. “The housing market is stuck, with both prospective buyers and sellers increasingly concerned about the economy and their own personal financial situations.
“Home sales activity is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year and overall sales could end the year at or below last year’s historically low levels.”
This week’s Housing Market Tracker from HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami shows that inventory growth has leveled off from its recent peaks, although the supply of homes for sale remains 27% higher on a year-over-year basis.
The share of listings with a price cut is also on the rise and reached 41.6% last week. That’s up 2.6 percentage points from the same week in 2024 and is nearing the recent peak rate of 43.2% in late 2022.
Sellers typically turn into new buyers, and the higher level of supply is also showing up in demand for purchase mortgages. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows that purchase application activity has posted 25 straight weeks of annualized growth — including 12 straight weeks of double-digit growth.
Williamson said that even as affordability remains a constraint for prospective buyers, they are often highly sensitive to interest rate changes. And rates could begin to decline without Federal Reserve action.
“Softening mortgage rates and their corresponding effects on the housing market often begin before the Fed takes formal action — if markets are confident in the Fed’s direction,” he said. “In mid-2024, mortgage rates fell ahead of the Fed’s 50-basis-point cut in September, as markets grew more confident that easing was imminent.
“A similar dynamic could emerge in the coming months, provided inflation continues to trend favorably. While we still expect the Fed to cut rates before year-end, buyers could see rate relief and improved affordability even earlier, as markets begin to price in that shift.”
