The red-hot New York Mets seek their eighth consecutive victory when they visit the San Diego Padres on Monday for the opener of their three-game series at Petco Park. New York (62-44) lost its first two contests after the All-Star break but has won seven straight since, defeating the San Francisco Giants 5-3 on Sunday to complete a three-game sweep and match its longest winning streak of the season.
The Mets, who also won seven in row from April 17-23, own a 1 1/2-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. They look to continue their run behind right-hander Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA), who registered a season-high six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels en route to his third straight victory in his last outing.
San Diego, which trails the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by four games, counters with Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59). The 29-year-old righty is 0-3 lifetime against New York and 0-4 over his last five starts this season, although he reached double digits in strikeouts for the third time in 2025 with 10 versus the Washington Nationals on July 18.
The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Cease (Over -130, Under +100) at 6.5 and Montas (Over +115, Under -147) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Montas’ Over 4.5 strikeout prop as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Cease’s Over 6.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Monday’s 15-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two others it has rated at 4.5 stars, both of which return plus money. Here they are:
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts (-142) vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
Boyd is first up for the Cubs in this huge three-game series between the NL Central co-leaders. The 34-year-old left-hander recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his previous four starts this month after doing so just twice in five outings in June. Boyd hasn’t faced the Brewers since 2003, when he fanned eight batters across five innings en route to victory. As a team, Milwaukee has struck out at least eight times in five straight contests and Boyd has punched out Andrew Vaughn in four of his eight career at-bats against him.
Spencer Strider Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 7.2 strikeouts
Strider has been racking up the strikeouts of late, registering 26 over 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts. The 26-year-old righty fanned at least seven batters in each of those outings after accomplishing that feat only four times in his first 10 turns this season. Strider has gone Over his projected strikeout total in three of his last five road starts with an average of 6.8 per game. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have struck out fewer times this year than Kansas City (728), but the Royals have fanned 18 times over their last two games. Acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend, Kansas City’s Randal Grichuk has been retired five times in seven career at-bats against Strider, four via the strikeout.
Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts (+118) vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts
The Angels’ 1,024 strikeouts are the most in the major leagues this season. But deGrom’s recent history against the team in that department hasn’t been spectacular. The two-time Cy Young Award winner struck out only five batters across five innings against Los Angeles on July 7 and finished with the same total over four frames in his outing versus the Angels last season. DeGrom has gone Under his projected strikeout total in eight of his last 12 games against teams with a losing record, which Los Angeles currently owns at 51-55.
